Most university students who lose confidence in their academic abilities eventually recover, but a small group faces a steep and lasting decline that leaves them increasingly anxious throughout their degree, according to new research into the mental wellbeing of Chinese university students. The findings were published in New Directions for Child and Adolescent Development.
The four-year study tracked nearly 2,500 students across 15 universities in Beijing, measuring their academic self-efficacy, essentially their belief in their own ability to succeed at coursework and exams, alongside symptoms of anxiety. Researchers wanted to understand whether students followed similar patterns as they progressed through their degrees, or whether their confidence developed in strikingly different ways.
The findings revealed three distinct groups. The vast majority of students, nearly 79%, showed what researchers called a resilient pattern. Their confidence dipped slightly in the early years before recovering by graduation, suggesting most young people adapt reasonably well to the pressures of higher education over time.
Almost 20% of students fell into a growing group. These students started university with notably lower academic confidence but showed steady improvement across all four years, with the biggest gains coming in the first two years. Female students and those from families with lower economic status but higher social standing were more likely to belong to this group.
The most concerning pattern, however, applied to just 1.5% of students. This declining group started university with high confidence, similar to their resilient peers, but experienced a sharp collapse in self-belief, particularly after the second year. By their final year, their academic self-efficacy scores had fallen dramatically. Male students were significantly more likely to end up in this group than in the growing one.
Crucially, the study found that anxiety levels moved in the opposite direction to academic confidence. Students in the resilient group had consistently low, stable anxiety throughout their studies. Those in the growing group started with the highest anxiety levels but saw them ease over time. The declining group, meanwhile, experienced worsening anxiety that peaked during their third year, coinciding with moderate levels of distress at a time when their confidence was collapsing fastest.
The researchers also found that perceived health status played a meaningful role, with students who rated their health poorly more likely to see their confidence grow rather than start high and stay flat. Family economic and social background similarly shaped which path students took.
The authors argue the findings carry real implications for how universities support students. They suggest that those on a declining trajectory would benefit most from psychological screening and counselling during their third and fourth years, when the drop in confidence and rise in anxiety are most severe. For students on an upward trajectory, targeted academic guidance early in their degree could help consolidate their gains and ease early anxiety.
The study’s authors caution that their sample was drawn exclusively from Chinese universities, and cultural attitudes towards academic achievement may shape how confidence develops differently elsewhere.
